In March of 2021 I prepared an investment pitch deck in favor of shorting Meta (Facebook at the time) as part of a project in a business strategy course I took at the University of Michigan. Meta's market capitalization at the time was near $753 Billion, but there were imminent concerns for the future growth of the company and for big tech broadly.
As you may imagine, this idea was not well received. Classmates questioned my math and bearish outlook while dismissing my argument all together. I can specifically remember one classmate say "Why would you ever short Facebook, it's Facebook?" Truthfully, this comment strengthened my conviction even more, as it's the same blind bullishness that has led to the collapse of some of history's biggest giants.
"Why would you ever short Facebook, it's Facebook?"
Well, then Meta went on to rip nearly 40% between March and September, and about finish up 27% from March to end of 2021. Had I followed my own advice, there's no doubt I would've been crushed.
Turns out I was just early.
Last night, Meta reported less than stellar earnings and unencouraging guidance. As of 10:45 this morning, the stock is down a whopping 24.5%
Many the concerns laid out in my deck are what is driving $FB down this morning.
While my DCF and comparables models for this project have been lost, I was able to locate part of the pitch deck. Take a look for yourself:
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